According to BCA Research analysts, President Joe Biden has largely exhausted his political capital. The firm states that any significant negative developments from this point “could destroy his presidency.”
Despite managing some successes, such as negotiating bipartisan budget deals and the Fed achieving a soft landing, BCA says Biden’s administration is struggling with weak popular support.
“We slightly favor the Biden administration for reelection (55% odds), but we are putting it on watch for a downgrade,” BCA Research noted.
The analysts highlighted that ongoing issues, including inflation, foreign policy crises, and the prosecution of former President Trump, are adversely affecting Biden’s approval ratings and election prospects.
As the U.S. election cycle intensifies over the summer and fall, election risk and policy uncertainty are expected to generate volatility and a risk premium in U.S. stocks and corporate bonds.
BCA Research suggests that investors should favor defensive sectors, low-beta assets, and long-duration bonds until the election uncertainty is resolved over the next five months.
Biden’s recent efforts to regain political capital appear to have fallen short, leaving his administration vulnerable to further setbacks. The bottom line, according to BCA Research, is that the political and economic landscape will remain uncertain and volatile as the election approaches.